Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Perugia win with a probability of 37%. A win for Brescia had a probability of 34.97% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Perugia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.86%) and 2-0 (6.82%). The likeliest Brescia win was 0-1 (11.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Perugia would win this match.
-0.08) 
0.08) 
