Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pisa win with a probability of 57.19%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Perugia had a probability of 19.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pisa win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.9%) and 2-1 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.22%), while for a Perugia win it was 0-1 (6.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pisa would win this match.
-0.03) 
0.01) 
