Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Perugia win with a probability of 41.57%. A draw had a probability of 29.5% and a win for Sudtirol had a probability of 28.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Perugia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.41%) and 2-1 (7.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.3%), while for a Sudtirol win it was 0-1 (11.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.
0.21) 
-0.36) 
