SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Besiktas win with a probability of 50.7%. A win for Fatih Karagumruk had a probability of 25.4% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Besiktas win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.64%) and 2-0 (8.45%). The likeliest Fatih Karagumruk win was 0-1 (6.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.27%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Besiktas would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Besiktas | Draw | Fatih Karagumruk |
50.7% ( 0.21) | 23.9% ( -0.01) | 25.4% ( -0.2) |
| Both teams to score 55.74% ( -0.19) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.26% ( -0.15) | 45.74% ( 0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.94% ( -0.14) | 68.05% ( 0.15) |
| Besiktas Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.92% ( 0.02) | 18.08% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51% ( 0.04) | 49% ( -0.04) |
| Fatih Karagumruk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.04% ( -0.24) | 31.96% ( 0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.58% ( -0.28) | 68.42% ( 0.28) |
| Score Analysis |
| Besiktas | Draw | Fatih Karagumruk |
| 1-0 @ 9.88% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 9.64% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 8.45% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 5.5% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 4.82% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 3.14% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 2.35% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.06% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.34% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.52% Total : 50.7% | 1-1 @ 11.27% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.78% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 5.5% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.16% Total : 23.9% | 0-1 @ 6.59% ( -0) 1-2 @ 6.43% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 3.76% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 2.45% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.09% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.65% Total : 25.4% |
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