With Galatasaray potentially in party mode and Fenerbahce looking ahead to next weekend's cup final, both sides may be a level below their usual best, despite the enormity of the fixture. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Galatasaray win with a probability of 48.48%. A win for Fenerbahce had a probability of 27.29% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Galatasaray win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.49%) and 2-0 (7.99%). The likeliest Fenerbahce win was 0-1 (6.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.41%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Galatasaray would win this match.

Result
Galatasaray	Draw	Fenerbahce
48.48% ( 2.09)	24.23% ( -0.31)	27.29% ( -1.77)

Both teams to score 56.35% (

-0.27)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.28% (

0.24)

45.71% (

-0.24)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.96% (

0.23)

68.03% (

-0.23)

Galatasaray Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.05% (

0.96)

18.95% (

-0.96)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.54% (

1.57)

50.46% (

-1.57)

Fenerbahce Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.53% (

-1.16)

30.47% (

1.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.31% (

-1.41)

66.68% (

1.41)

Score Analysis

Galatasaray 48.48%

Fenerbahce 27.29%

Draw 24.23%

Galatasaray	Draw	Fenerbahce
1-0 @ 9.6% ( 0.19) 2-1 @ 9.49% ( 0.17) 2-0 @ 7.99% ( 0.39) 3-1 @ 5.27% ( 0.25) 3-0 @ 4.43% ( 0.34) 3-2 @ 3.13% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 2.19% ( 0.16) 4-0 @ 1.84% ( 0.19) 4-2 @ 1.3% ( 0.06) Other @ 3.23% Total : 48.48%	1-1 @ 11.41% ( -0.14) 0-0 @ 5.77% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 5.64% ( -0.08) 3-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.23%	0-1 @ 6.86% ( -0.3) 1-2 @ 6.78% ( -0.31) 0-2 @ 4.08% ( -0.32) 1-3 @ 2.69% ( -0.22) 2-3 @ 2.24% ( -0.11) 0-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.18) Other @ 3.04% Total : 27.29%