SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenerbahce win with a probability of 52.41%. A win for Kayserispor had a probability of 23.96% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenerbahce win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.73%) and 0-2 (8.84%). The likeliest Kayserispor win was 1-0 (6.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-6 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fenerbahce would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Kayserispor | Draw | Fenerbahce |
23.96% ( -1.27) | 23.64% ( 0.01) | 52.41% ( 1.26) |
| Both teams to score 55.06% ( -1.4) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.08% ( -1.21) | 45.91% ( 1.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.77% ( -1.15) | 68.22% ( 1.15) |
| Kayserispor Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.73% ( -1.71) | 33.26% ( 1.71) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.12% ( -1.93) | 69.88% ( 1.93) |
| Fenerbahce Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.5% ( 0.02) | 17.5% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.99% ( 0.04) | 48% ( -0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Kayserispor | Draw | Fenerbahce |
| 1-0 @ 6.41% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 6.15% ( -0.26)2-0 @ 3.53% ( -0.15)3-1 @ 2.26% ( -0.21)3-2 @ 1.97% ( -0.18)3-0 @ 1.29% ( -0.12)Other @ 2.36% Total : 23.96% | 1-1 @ 11.16% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 5.82% ( 0.29)2-2 @ 5.36% ( -0.22)3-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.15% Total : 23.63% | 0-1 @ 10.14% ( 0.51) 1-2 @ 9.73% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 8.84% ( 0.46)1-3 @ 5.65% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 5.14% ( 0.27)2-3 @ 3.11% ( -0.13)1-4 @ 2.46% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 2.24% ( 0.12)2-4 @ 1.36% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.72% Total : 52.4% |
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