SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenerbahce win with a probability of 44.1%. A win for Kayserispor had a probability of 30.38% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenerbahce win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.07%) and 0-2 (7.57%). The likeliest Kayserispor win was 1-0 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fenerbahce would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Kayserispor | Draw | Fenerbahce |
30.38% ( -0.84) | 25.51% ( 0.19) | 44.1% ( 0.65) |
| Both teams to score 54.2% ( -1.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.52% ( -1.15) | 49.48% ( 1.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.48% ( -1.04) | 71.52% ( 1.05) |
| Kayserispor Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.83% ( -1.15) | 30.17% ( 1.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.67% ( -1.4) | 66.33% ( 1.4) |
| Fenerbahce Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.62% ( -0.18) | 22.38% ( 0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.11% ( -0.28) | 55.89% ( 0.28) |
| Score Analysis |
| Kayserispor | Draw | Fenerbahce |
| 1-0 @ 8.09% ( 0.12) 2-1 @ 7.26% ( -0.16)2-0 @ 4.85% ( -0.08)3-1 @ 2.9% ( -0.16)3-2 @ 2.17% ( -0.13)3-0 @ 1.94% ( -0.1)Other @ 3.18% Total : 30.38% | 1-1 @ 12.11% ( 0.12) 0-0 @ 6.75% ( 0.31)2-2 @ 5.43% ( -0.15)3-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.51% | 0-1 @ 10.1% ( 0.4) 1-2 @ 9.07% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 7.57% ( 0.27)1-3 @ 4.52% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 3.78% ( 0.11)2-3 @ 2.71% ( -0.09)1-4 @ 1.69% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.41% ( 0.04)2-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.24% Total : 44.1% |
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