Rio Ave's form has dipped recently, and they have little to play for at this stage of the season, while Arouca are still battling for the final Europa Conference League qualification spot.
As such, we expect the visitors to come away with a narrow victory, in what is likely to be a low-scoring game, given that Evangelista's side have conceded just two goals in their last eight matches.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 42.97%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 29.78% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (8.08%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (9.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Rio Ave in this match.
0.01) 
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