Although Arouca have the advantage in terms of league position, all of the momentum is with their next opponents. In what we feel will inevitably be a hard-fought contest, Chaves should have the edge to come through by the odd goal in three.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chaves win with a probability of 40.59%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 32.27% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.47%) and 0-2 (7.41%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-0 (9.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.
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