Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chaves win with a probability of 40.59%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 32.27% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.47%) and 0-2 (7.41%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-0 (9.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | Chaves |
32.27% ( 0.03) | 27.14% ( -0) | 40.59% ( -0.03) |
Both teams to score 49.85% ( 0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
44.57% ( 0.03) | 55.43% ( -0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
23.38% ( 0.02) | 76.63% ( -0.02) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.11% ( 0.04) | 31.89% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.66% ( 0.04) | 68.34% ( -0.04) |
Chaves Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.19% ( -0) | 26.81% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.9% ( -0) | 62.1% ( 0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | Chaves |
1-0 @ 9.77% ( 0) 2-1 @ 7.35% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.58% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.8% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.13% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.84% ( 0) Other @ 2.8% Total : 32.27% | 1-1 @ 12.86% 0-0 @ 8.55% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.84% ( 0) Other @ 0.89% Total : 27.14% | 0-1 @ 11.25% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 8.47% ( -0) 0-2 @ 7.41% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.72% ( -0) 0-3 @ 3.25% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.12% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.22% 0-4 @ 1.07% ( -0) Other @ 2.08% Total : 40.58% |
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