SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 66.67%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 12.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (13.48%) and 1-2 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.71%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (5.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 14% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Porto in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Porto.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Porto |
12.59% ( 0.34) | 20.74% ( 0.49) | 66.67% ( -0.83) |
| Both teams to score 42.83% ( -0.45) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.81% ( -1.19) | 51.19% ( 1.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.97% ( -1.05) | 73.03% ( 1.05) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.1% ( -0.16) | 49.9% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 15.41% ( -0.11) | 84.59% ( 0.11) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.49% ( -0.64) | 14.5% ( 0.63) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 57.5% ( -1.24) | 42.5% ( 1.24) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Porto |
| 1-0 @ 5.03% ( 0.21) 2-1 @ 3.38% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 1.75% ( 0.07)Other @ 2.44% Total : 12.59% | 1-1 @ 9.71% ( 0.2) 0-0 @ 7.24% ( 0.34)2-2 @ 3.26% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.53% Total : 20.74% | 0-1 @ 13.97% ( 0.35) 0-2 @ 13.48% ( 0.02)1-2 @ 9.38% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 8.68% ( -0.18)1-3 @ 6.04% ( -0.16)0-4 @ 4.19% ( -0.19)1-4 @ 2.91% ( -0.14)2-3 @ 2.1% ( -0.06)0-5 @ 1.62% ( -0.11)1-5 @ 1.13% ( -0.08)2-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.15% Total : 66.66% |
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