Estoril have been the most out of form side in the top flight during 2023, and are likely to struggle against a side fighting towards the upper end of the table.
Arouca have been notoriously difficult to beat all season, and deservedly find themselves in fifth, as Rio Ave are the only non-top four side to record a victory over them since early September.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 41.54%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 30.98% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.47%) and 2-0 (7.78%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (9.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Estoril Praia would win this match.
-0.61) 
0.13) 
