Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 58.48%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Sporting Covilha had a probability of 20.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.02%) and 0-1 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.86%), while for a Sporting Covilha win it was 2-1 (5.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.
0.11) 
-0.15) 
