Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Covilha win with a probability of 53.86%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Moncarapachense had a probability of 20.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Covilha win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.65%) and 2-1 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.86%), while for a Moncarapachense win it was 0-1 (7.49%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Covilha would win this match.
