Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portimonense win with a probability of 60.37%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Sporting Covilha had a probability of 17.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portimonense win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.51%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.3%), while for a Sporting Covilha win it was 0-1 (5.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Portimonense would win this match.
-0.18) 
0.07) 
