Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Covilha win with a probability of 41.29%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 32.32% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Covilha win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (7.28%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 0-1 (9.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.
0.23) 
-0.07) 
