Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tondela win with a probability of 38.19%. A win for Sporting Covilha had a probability of 32.35% and a draw had a probability of 29.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tondela win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.61%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest Sporting Covilha win was 0-1 (11.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tondela would win this match.
-2.74) 
0.5) 
