Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerrito win with a probability of 39.02%. A win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 33.67% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerrito win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.26%) and 0-2 (7.09%). The likeliest Deportivo Maldonado win was 1-0 (10.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Cerrito in this match.