Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 60.83%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Cerrito had a probability of 15.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.45%) and 1-2 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.85%), while for a Cerrito win it was 1-0 (6.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
