SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 37.96%. A win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 33.88% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.94%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest Montevideo Wanderers win was 0-1 (10.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 37.96% | 28.17% | 33.88% |
| Both teams to score 47.15% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.02% | 58.98% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.54% | 79.46% |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.97% | 30.02% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 33.85% | 66.15% |
| Montevideo Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.38% | 32.62% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 30.84% | 69.16% |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 1-0 @ 11.78% 2-1 @ 7.94% 2-0 @ 7.09% 3-1 @ 3.19% 3-0 @ 2.84% 3-2 @ 1.78% 4-1 @ 0.96% Other @ 2.37% Total : 37.95% | 1-1 @ 13.2% 0-0 @ 9.79% 2-2 @ 4.45% Other @ 0.73% Total : 28.17% | 0-1 @ 10.97% 1-2 @ 7.39% 0-2 @ 6.15% 1-3 @ 2.76% 0-3 @ 2.3% 2-3 @ 1.66% Other @ 2.65% Total : 33.87% |
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