Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 41.95%. A win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 29.91% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.32%) and 0-2 (8.12%). The likeliest Plaza Colonia win was 1-0 (10.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.12%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cerro Largo would win this match.