Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 39.09%. A win for Fenix had a probability of 32.24% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.93%) and 2-0 (7.51%). The likeliest Fenix win was 0-1 (11.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.29%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.
