Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barry Town United win with a probability of 44.26%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 31.53% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barry Town United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.42%) and 2-0 (6.84%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 1-2 (7.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Barry Town United would win this match.