Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caernarfon Town win with a probability of 47.42%. A win for Barry Town United had a probability of 28.71% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caernarfon Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.75%) and 2-0 (7.42%). The likeliest Barry Town United win was 1-2 (7.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Caernarfon Town would win this match.