Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 61.51%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 16.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.1%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.29%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 0-1 (5.37%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Connah's Quay Nomads would win this match.
