Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barry Town United win with a probability of 46.28%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 30.73% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barry Town United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.23%) and 2-0 (6.46%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 1-2 (7.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.