Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff MU win with a probability of 40.83%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 33.9% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff MU win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.77%) and 0-2 (6.65%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 1-0 (8.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.