Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ivory Coast win with a probability of 57.38%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Malawi had a probability of 18.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ivory Coast win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.53%) and 2-1 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.38%), while for a Malawi win it was 0-1 (6.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ivory Coast would win this match.
