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World Cup Qualifying - Europe | Group Stage
Oct 12, 2021 at 7.45pm UK
 
AN

Serbia
3 - 1
Azerbaijan

Vlahovic (30' pen., 53'), Tadic (83' pen.)
FT(HT: 1-1)
Mahmudov (45+2')
Haghverdi (27'), Medvedev (65')

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Serbia win with a probability of 55.24%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Azerbaijan had a probability of 19.35%.

The most likely scoreline for a Serbia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.4%) and 2-1 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.79%), while for an Azerbaijan win it was 0-1 (7.54%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Serbia would win this match.

Result
SerbiaDrawAzerbaijan
55.24%25.41%19.35%
Both teams to score 43.87%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
42.33%57.66%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
21.58%78.42%
Serbia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.08%20.92%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.35%53.65%
Azerbaijan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.47%44.53%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.45%80.55%
Score Analysis
    Serbia 55.24%
    Azerbaijan 19.35%
    Draw 25.41%
SerbiaDrawAzerbaijan
1-0 @ 14.57%
2-0 @ 11.4%
2-1 @ 9.22%
3-0 @ 5.95%
3-1 @ 4.81%
4-0 @ 2.33%
3-2 @ 1.95%
4-1 @ 1.88%
Other @ 3.14%
Total : 55.24%
1-1 @ 11.79%
0-0 @ 9.32%
2-2 @ 3.73%
Other @ 0.57%
Total : 25.41%
0-1 @ 7.54%
1-2 @ 4.77%
0-2 @ 3.05%
1-3 @ 1.29%
2-3 @ 1.01%
Other @ 1.7%
Total : 19.35%

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