SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uruguay win with a probability of 62%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Venezuela had a probability of 13.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uruguay win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.02%) and 2-1 (8.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.63%), while for a Venezuela win it was 0-1 (6.52%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Uruguay would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Uruguay | Draw | Venezuela |
| 62% | 24.18% | 13.82% |
| Both teams to score 37.1% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.07% | 60.93% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.06% | 80.94% |
| Uruguay Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.44% | 19.56% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 48.52% | 51.48% |
| Venezuela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 46.13% | 53.87% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 12.81% | 87.19% |
| Score Analysis |
| Uruguay | Draw | Venezuela |
| 1-0 @ 17.19% 2-0 @ 14.02% 2-1 @ 8.68% 3-0 @ 7.63% 3-1 @ 4.72% 4-0 @ 3.11% 4-1 @ 1.93% 3-2 @ 1.46% 5-0 @ 1.02% Other @ 2.25% Total : 61.99% | 1-1 @ 10.63% 0-0 @ 10.53% 2-2 @ 2.68% Other @ 0.32% Total : 24.16% | 0-1 @ 6.52% 1-2 @ 3.29% 0-2 @ 2.02% Other @ 1.99% Total : 13.82% |
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