A Rondon-inspired Venezuela are certainly capable of troubling this Uruguay defence despite the telepathic relationship between Diego Godin and Jose Gimenez, with the hosts still finding their feet under Alonso.
However, La Vinotinto have simply capitulated on the road during this Qualifying period, and while this may turn out to be a closer battle than it may look on paper, Uruguay should still get the job done to pile the pressure on Peru.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uruguay win with a probability of 62%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Venezuela had a probability of 13.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uruguay win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.02%) and 2-1 (8.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.63%), while for a Venezuela win it was 0-1 (6.52%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Uruguay would win this match.
