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World Cup Qualifying - North Central America | Third Round
Jan 28, 2022 at 12am UK
 
ES

USA
1 - 0
El Salvador

Robinson (52')
FT(HT: 0-0)

We said: USA 1-0 El Salvador

Even though they more than held their own in their last match versus the Americans, El Salvador are a different team away from home, while the United States have squeaked out several points in the Octagon because of their individual quality, which could win them this game as well. Expect to see La Selecta play with a lot of physicality, while trying to throw the skilled Americans off their game with lots of fouls and hacks, but you have to think that the US should still have enough to collect three points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 63.53%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for El Salvador had a probability of 14.12%.

The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.21%) and 2-1 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.37%), while for a El Salvador win it was 0-1 (5.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for USA in this match.

Result
USADrawEl Salvador
63.53%22.35%14.12%
Both teams to score 42.27%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.74%54.26%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.35%75.65%
USA Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.45%16.55%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.67%46.33%
El Salvador Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
50.65%49.35%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
15.8%84.2%
Score Analysis
    USA 63.53%
    El Salvador 14.12%
    Draw 22.34%
USADrawEl Salvador
1-0 @ 14.69%
2-0 @ 13.21%
2-1 @ 9.33%
3-0 @ 7.92%
3-1 @ 5.59%
4-0 @ 3.56%
4-1 @ 2.52%
3-2 @ 1.98%
5-0 @ 1.28%
5-1 @ 0.91%
Other @ 2.54%
Total : 63.53%
1-1 @ 10.37%
0-0 @ 8.17%
2-2 @ 3.3%
Other @ 0.5%
Total : 22.34%
0-1 @ 5.77%
1-2 @ 3.66%
0-2 @ 2.04%
Other @ 2.65%
Total : 14.12%

Read more!
Read more!


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