Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arminia Bielefeld win with a probability of 41.47%. A win for Holstein Kiel had a probability of 32.94% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arminia Bielefeld win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.81%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Holstein Kiel win was 0-1 (8.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.13%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arminia Bielefeld would win this match.
-0.61) 
0.09) 
