Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nuremberg win with a probability of 41.15%. A win for Arminia Bielefeld had a probability of 33.88% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nuremberg win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.76%) and 2-0 (6.58%). The likeliest Arminia Bielefeld win was 1-2 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nuremberg would win this match.
0.35) 
-0.09) 
