SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortuna Dusseldorf win with a probability of 38.56%. A win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 35.72% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortuna Dusseldorf win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.47%) and 0-2 (6.38%). The likeliest Erzgebirge Aue win was 1-0 (8.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fortuna Dusseldorf would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Erzgebirge Aue | Draw | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 35.72% | 25.71% | 38.56% |
| Both teams to score 55.16% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.03% | 48.97% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.95% | 71.05% |
| Erzgebirge Aue Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.48% | 26.52% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 38.28% | 61.72% |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.06% | 24.94% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 40.43% | 59.57% |
| Score Analysis |
| Erzgebirge Aue | Draw | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 1-0 @ 8.78% 2-1 @ 8.09% 2-0 @ 5.83% 3-1 @ 3.58% 3-0 @ 2.58% 3-2 @ 2.49% 4-1 @ 1.19% Other @ 3.2% Total : 35.73% | 1-1 @ 12.19% 0-0 @ 6.61% 2-2 @ 5.62% 3-3 @ 1.15% Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.72% | 0-1 @ 9.18% 1-2 @ 8.47% 0-2 @ 6.38% 1-3 @ 3.92% 0-3 @ 2.95% 2-3 @ 2.6% 1-4 @ 1.36% 0-4 @ 1.03% 2-4 @ 0.9% Other @ 1.77% Total : 38.56% |
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