Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heidenheim win with a probability of 37.01%. A win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 36.02% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heidenheim win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.09%) and 0-2 (6.51%). The likeliest Erzgebirge Aue win was 1-0 (10.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.
