Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SC Paderborn win with a probability of 50.46%. A win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 25.93% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a SC Paderborn win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.34%) and 0-2 (8.14%). The likeliest Erzgebirge Aue win was 2-1 (6.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that SC Paderborn would win this match.
