Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nuremberg win with a probability of 38.81%. A win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 35.37% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nuremberg win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.49%) and 0-2 (6.48%). The likeliest Erzgebirge Aue win was 1-0 (8.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Nuremberg in this match.
