Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 41.22%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 34.57% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.84%) and 2-0 (6.18%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 (7.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wellington Phoenix would win this match.
