SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 37.82%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 37.67% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.7%) and 0-2 (5.7%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 (8.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
| 37.67% | 24.51% | 37.82% |
| Both teams to score 59.58% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.68% | 43.33% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.28% | 65.72% |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.15% | 22.86% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 43.41% | 56.59% |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.23% | 22.78% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 43.53% | 56.48% |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
| 2-1 @ 8.39% 1-0 @ 7.68% 2-0 @ 5.67% 3-1 @ 4.13% 3-2 @ 3.05% 3-0 @ 2.79% 4-1 @ 1.52% 4-2 @ 1.13% 4-0 @ 1.03% Other @ 2.28% Total : 37.67% | 1-1 @ 11.36% 2-2 @ 6.21% 0-0 @ 5.21% 3-3 @ 1.51% Other @ 0.22% Total : 24.5% | 1-2 @ 8.41% 0-1 @ 7.7% 0-2 @ 5.7% 1-3 @ 4.15% 2-3 @ 3.06% 0-3 @ 2.81% 1-4 @ 1.53% 2-4 @ 1.13% 0-4 @ 1.04% Other @ 2.3% Total : 37.82% |
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