SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 52.92%. A win for Western United had a probability of 25.2% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.49%) and 0-2 (7.37%). The likeliest Western United win was 2-1 (6.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Melbourne City in this match.
| Result | ||
| Western United | Draw | Melbourne City |
25.2% ( 0.01) | 21.88% ( 0.23) | 52.92% ( -0.23) |
| Both teams to score 62.58% ( -0.83) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.4% ( -1.09) | 36.6% ( 1.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.25% ( -1.2) | 58.76% ( 1.2) |
| Western United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.77% ( -0.58) | 27.23% ( 0.58) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.35% ( -0.75) | 62.65% ( 0.76) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.01% ( -0.45) | 14% ( 0.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.49% ( -0.89) | 41.51% ( 0.89) |
| Score Analysis |
| Western United | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 2-1 @ 6.34% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 4.96% ( 0.18)2-0 @ 3.22% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 2.75% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.7% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 1.4% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.83% Total : 25.2% | 1-1 @ 9.75% ( 0.21) 2-2 @ 6.23% ( -0.07)0-0 @ 3.81% ( 0.2)3-3 @ 1.77% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.31% Total : 21.88% | 1-2 @ 9.59% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 7.49% ( 0.28)0-2 @ 7.37% ( 0.15)1-3 @ 6.28% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 4.83% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 4.09% ( -0.12)1-4 @ 3.09% ( -0.09)0-4 @ 2.38% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 2.01% ( -0.09)1-5 @ 1.22% ( -0.06)0-5 @ 0.93% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.65% Total : 52.92% |
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