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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Western United win with a probability of 41.18%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 34.09% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Western United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.46%) and 2-0 (6.45%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.56%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Western United | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
41.18% ( 0.55) | 24.73% ( 0.05) | 34.09% ( -0.6) |
| Both teams to score 58.3% ( -0.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.22% ( -0.38) | 44.78% ( 0.38) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.86% ( -0.37) | 67.14% ( 0.36) |
| Western United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.24% ( 0.1) | 21.75% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.06% ( 0.15) | 54.94% ( -0.15) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.5% ( -0.53) | 25.5% ( 0.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.66% ( -0.73) | 60.34% ( 0.73) |
| Score Analysis |
| Western United | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
| 2-1 @ 8.82% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 8.46% ( 0.16)2-0 @ 6.45% ( 0.14)3-1 @ 4.48% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 3.28% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 3.06% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.71% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.25% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.17% ( -0)Other @ 2.49% Total : 41.18% | 1-1 @ 11.56% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 6.03% ( -0.05)0-0 @ 5.55% ( 0.09)3-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.73% | 1-2 @ 7.9% ( -0.09) 0-1 @ 7.58% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 5.18% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 3.6% ( -0.1)2-3 @ 2.75% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 2.36% ( -0.07)1-4 @ 1.23% ( -0.05)2-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.56% Total : 34.09% |
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