SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 56.22%. A win for Brisbane Roar had a probability of 23.26% and a draw had a probability of 20.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.05%) and 3-1 (6.81%). The likeliest Brisbane Roar win was 1-2 (5.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.73%). The actual scoreline of 8-1 was predicted with a 0% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne City | Draw | Brisbane Roar |
56.22% ( 0.33) | 20.51% ( -0.31) | 23.26% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 65.32% ( 1.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.96% ( 1.52) | 32.04% ( -1.53) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.39% ( 1.76) | 53.61% ( -1.76) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.5% ( 0.58) | 11.5% ( -0.58) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 63.63% ( 1.25) | 36.37% ( -1.25) |
| Brisbane Roar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.81% ( 0.84) | 26.19% ( -0.84) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.72% ( 1.11) | 61.28% ( -1.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne City | Draw | Brisbane Roar |
| 2-1 @ 9.44% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 7.05% ( -0.25)3-1 @ 6.81% ( 0.08)1-0 @ 6.51% ( -0.39)3-0 @ 5.08% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 4.56% ( 0.16)4-1 @ 3.68% ( 0.13)4-0 @ 2.75% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 2.47% ( 0.14)5-1 @ 1.59% ( 0.09)5-0 @ 1.19% ( 0.04)4-3 @ 1.1% ( 0.09)5-2 @ 1.07% ( 0.08)Other @ 2.95% Total : 56.22% | 1-1 @ 8.73% ( -0.3) 2-2 @ 6.32% ( 0.08)0-0 @ 3.01% ( -0.26)3-3 @ 2.04% ( 0.12)Other @ 0.42% Total : 20.51% | 1-2 @ 5.85% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 4.04% ( -0.24)2-3 @ 2.82% ( 0.1)0-2 @ 2.7% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 2.61% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 1.21% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.06)Other @ 3.09% Total : 23.26% |
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