SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 66.72%. A draw had a probability of 19.3% and a win for Western United had a probability of 13.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.59%) and 2-1 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.15%), while for a Western United win it was 0-1 (4.27%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne City | Draw | Western United |
66.72% ( -0.36) | 19.31% ( 0.15) | 13.96% ( 0.22) |
| Both teams to score 51.07% ( 0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.85% ( -0.18) | 42.15% ( 0.18) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.44% ( -0.18) | 64.55% ( 0.18) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.27% ( -0.15) | 11.73% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 63.14% ( -0.32) | 36.86% ( 0.32) |
| Western United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.86% ( 0.2) | 42.14% ( -0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.44% ( 0.17) | 78.56% ( -0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne City | Draw | Western United |
| 2-0 @ 11.35% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 10.59% ( 0.03)2-1 @ 9.81% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 8.11% ( -0.08)3-1 @ 7.01% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 4.35% ( -0.07)4-1 @ 3.76% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 3.03% ( 0)5-0 @ 1.86% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 1.62% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.61% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.63% Total : 66.72% | 1-1 @ 9.15% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 4.94% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 4.24% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.98% Total : 19.31% | 0-1 @ 4.27% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 3.96% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 1.85% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 1.22% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 1.14% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.53% Total : 13.96% |
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