SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 64.07%. A draw had a probability of 18.4% and a win for Western United had a probability of 17.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.91%) and 1-3 (7.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.86%), while for a Western United win it was 2-1 (4.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-3 win for Melbourne City in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Melbourne City.
| Result | ||
| Western United | Draw | Melbourne City |
17.52% ( 0.1) | 18.41% ( 0.09) | 64.07% ( -0.19) |
| Both teams to score 63.41% ( -0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 69.67% ( -0.26) | 30.32% ( 0.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 48.42% ( -0.31) | 51.57% ( 0.31) |
| Western United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.71% ( -0.07) | 30.28% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.54% ( -0.08) | 66.45% ( 0.06) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.95% ( -0.12) | 9.05% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 69.21% ( -0.28) | 30.78% ( 0.27) |
| Score Analysis |
| Western United | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 2-1 @ 4.7% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 3.27% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.25% ( -0)2-0 @ 1.96% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 1.87% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.47% Total : 17.52% | 1-1 @ 7.86% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 5.64% ( 0)0-0 @ 2.74% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 1.8% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.36% Total : 18.41% | 1-2 @ 9.45% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 7.91% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 7.57% ( -0.02)0-1 @ 6.58% ( 0.06)0-3 @ 6.33% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 4.55% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 4.52% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 3.81% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 2.72% ( -0.03)1-5 @ 2.18% ( -0.03)0-5 @ 1.83% ( -0.02)2-5 @ 1.31% ( -0.02)3-4 @ 1.08% ( -0.01)Other @ 4.25% Total : 64.07% |
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