SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Angola | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Mauritania | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Algeria | 3 | -1 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Algeria win with a probability of 77.07%. A draw had a probability of 15% and a win for Liberia had a probability of 7.91%.
The most likely scoreline for an Algeria win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.99%) and 1-0 (10.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.14%), while for a Liberia win it was 0-1 (2.9%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Algeria would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Algeria | Draw | Liberia |
77.07% ( 0.74) | 15.02% ( -0.56) | 7.91% ( -0.18) |
| Both teams to score 44.07% ( 1.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.35% ( 2.01) | 39.65% ( -2.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38% ( 2.06) | 62% ( -2.06) |
| Algeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.49% ( 0.66) | 8.5% ( -0.66) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 70.53% ( 1.59) | 29.47% ( -1.6) |
| Liberia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 48.17% ( 0.91) | 51.83% ( -0.91) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 14.11% ( 0.59) | 85.89% ( -0.59) |
| Score Analysis |
| Algeria | Draw | Liberia |
| 2-0 @ 13.38% ( -0.42) 3-0 @ 10.99% 1-0 @ 10.86% ( -0.68)2-1 @ 8.8% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 7.23% ( 0.19)4-0 @ 6.78% ( 0.21)4-1 @ 4.45% ( 0.25)5-0 @ 3.34% ( 0.2)3-2 @ 2.38% ( 0.12)5-1 @ 2.2% ( 0.19)4-2 @ 1.46% ( 0.12)6-0 @ 1.37% ( 0.12)6-1 @ 0.9% ( 0.1)Other @ 2.92% Total : 77.05% | 1-1 @ 7.14% ( -0.25) 0-0 @ 4.41% ( -0.42)2-2 @ 2.89% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.58% Total : 15.02% | 0-1 @ 2.9% ( -0.2) 1-2 @ 2.35% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 0.95% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.72% Total : 7.91% |
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