SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Ivory Coast | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Equatorial Guinea win with a probability of 44.76%. A win for Liberia had a probability of 27.62% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Equatorial Guinea win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.75%) and 2-1 (8.64%). The likeliest Liberia win was 0-1 (9.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Equatorial Guinea in this match.
| Result | ||
| Equatorial Guinea | Draw | Liberia |
44.76% ( -0.08) | 27.62% ( 0.03) | 27.62% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 46.33% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.12% ( -0.06) | 58.87% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.63% ( -0.05) | 79.37% ( 0.05) |
| Equatorial Guinea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.79% ( -0.07) | 26.21% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.7% ( -0.09) | 61.3% ( 0.09) |
| Liberia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.78% ( 0.01) | 37.22% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26% ( 0.01) | 74% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Equatorial Guinea | Draw | Liberia |
| 1-0 @ 13.06% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.75% ( -0.01)2-1 @ 8.64% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.9% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 3.86% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.91% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.31% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.29% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.04% Total : 44.76% | 1-1 @ 12.91% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.75% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 4.27% ( -0)Other @ 0.68% Total : 27.62% | 0-1 @ 9.64% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 6.38% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 4.76% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.1% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.57% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.41% ( -0)Other @ 1.76% Total : 27.62% |
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