SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mali | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Gambia | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Tunisia | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Mauritania | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 52.92%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Gambia had a probability of 19.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.59%) and 1-2 (8.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.16%), while for a Gambia win it was 1-0 (8.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Gambia | Draw | Mali |
19.63% ( -0.15) | 27.45% ( 0.05) | 52.92% ( 0.1) |
| Both teams to score 39.32% ( -0.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.13% ( -0.26) | 63.87% ( 0.26) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.91% ( -0.19) | 83.09% ( 0.18) |
| Gambia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.12% ( -0.32) | 47.88% ( 0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 16.86% ( -0.24) | 83.14% ( 0.24) |
| Mali Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.44% ( -0.07) | 24.56% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.95% ( -0.1) | 59.04% ( 0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Gambia | Draw | Mali |
| 1-0 @ 8.66% ( 0) 2-1 @ 4.48% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 3.19% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 1.1% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.21% Total : 19.63% | 1-1 @ 12.16% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 11.76% ( 0.12)2-2 @ 3.14% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.39% Total : 27.45% | 0-1 @ 16.51% ( 0.13) 0-2 @ 11.59% ( 0.07)1-2 @ 8.54% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 5.42% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 4% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 1.9% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.4% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.08% Total : 52.92% |
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