SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mali | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Gambia | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Tunisia | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Mauritania | 3 | -7 | 0 |
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mali | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Gambia | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Tunisia | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Mauritania | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 63.81%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Gambia had a probability of 10.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 1-0 with a probability of 21.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (16.03%) and 3-0 (8.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.97%), while for a Gambia win it was 0-1 (6.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 16% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mali would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Mali | Draw | Gambia |
63.81% ( 0.01) | 25.35% ( 0.12) | 10.85% ( -0.13) |
| Both teams to score 28.42% ( -0.5) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 31.45% ( -0.49) | 68.55% ( 0.49) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 13.7% ( -0.33) | 86.3% ( 0.33) |
| Mali Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.01% ( -0.21) | 21.99% ( 0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.7% ( -0.32) | 55.3% ( 0.32) |
| Gambia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 36.43% ( -0.54) | 63.57% ( 0.54) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 7.63% ( -0.25) | 92.37% ( 0.25) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mali | Draw | Gambia |
| 1-0 @ 21.17% ( 0.25) 2-0 @ 16.03% ( 0.09)3-0 @ 8.1% ( -0.01)2-1 @ 7.26% ( -0.1)3-1 @ 3.67% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 3.07% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.39% ( -0.04)5-0 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.19% Total : 63.8% | 0-0 @ 13.97% ( 0.25) 1-1 @ 9.59% ( -0.07)2-2 @ 1.65% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.34% | 0-1 @ 6.33% ( -0) 1-2 @ 2.17% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 1.44% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.91% Total : 10.85% |
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