SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mali | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Gambia | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Tunisia | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Mauritania | 3 | -7 | 0 |
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mali | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Gambia | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Tunisia | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Mauritania | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 37.46%. A draw had a probability of 32.9% and a win for Mauritania had a probability of 29.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.8%) and 1-2 (6.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (16.74%), while for a Mauritania win it was 1-0 (13.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Mauritania | Draw | Mali |
29.62% ( -0.74) | 32.91% ( 0.2) | 37.46% ( 0.54) |
| Both teams to score 34.68% ( -0.57) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 26.58% ( -0.56) | 73.42% ( 0.56) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 10.65% ( -0.33) | 89.34% ( 0.34) |
| Mauritania Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.03% ( -0.95) | 43.96% ( 0.95) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.9% ( -0.79) | 80.09% ( 0.79) |
| Mali Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.9% ( 0.04) | 38.1% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.13% ( 0.04) | 74.86% ( -0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mauritania | Draw | Mali |
| 1-0 @ 13.76% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 5.66% ( -0.18)2-1 @ 5.46% ( -0.17)3-0 @ 1.55% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 1.5% ( -0.09)Other @ 1.7% Total : 29.62% | 0-0 @ 16.74% ( 0.34) 1-1 @ 13.28% ( -0.06)2-2 @ 2.63% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.24% Total : 32.9% | 0-1 @ 16.16% ( 0.35) 0-2 @ 7.8% ( 0.18)1-2 @ 6.41% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.51% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 2.06% ( -0)Other @ 2.52% Total : 37.46% |
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