Although Guinea are necessarily lining up with their strongest side for this contest, it should still largely be one-way traffic. Vanuatu would take pride in a solid performance and avoiding a heavy defeat, and they may just avoid that here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guinea win with a probability of 75.44%. A draw had a probability of 16.3% and a win for Vanuatu had a probability of 8.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guinea win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.58%) and 3-0 (11.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.68%), while for a Vanuatu win it was 0-1 (3.35%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Guinea would win this match.
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