SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Senegal | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 2 | Guinea | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Malawi | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Zimbabwe | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Senegal | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 2 | Guinea | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Malawi | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Zimbabwe | 3 | -1 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guinea win with a probability of 52.29%. A win for Malawi had a probability of 24.97% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guinea win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.65%) and 2-0 (8%). The likeliest Malawi win was 1-2 (6.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Guinea would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Guinea | Draw | Malawi |
52.29% ( -0.01) | 22.75% ( 0) | 24.97% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 59.21% ( 0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.06% ( 0) | 40.94% ( -0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.67% ( 0) | 63.33% ( -0) |
| Guinea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.27% | 15.73% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.17% ( -0) | 44.83% ( 0) |
| Malawi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.26% ( 0.01) | 29.74% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.19% ( 0.01) | 65.81% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Guinea | Draw | Malawi |
| 2-1 @ 9.7% 1-0 @ 8.65% ( -0)2-0 @ 8% ( -0)3-1 @ 5.98% 3-0 @ 4.93% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.63% ( 0)4-1 @ 2.77% ( -0)4-0 @ 2.28% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.68% 5-1 @ 1.02% Other @ 3.64% Total : 52.29% | 1-1 @ 10.49% 2-2 @ 5.88% ( 0)0-0 @ 4.68% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.47% Other @ 0.23% Total : 22.74% | 1-2 @ 6.36% ( 0) 0-1 @ 5.67% 0-2 @ 3.44% ( 0)1-3 @ 2.57% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.38% 0-3 @ 1.39% Other @ 3.15% Total : 24.97% |
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